Where Are the Scenarios?

2009-03-13

Given all the bad news these days (and remember, it's "news", produced by companies who have learned that sensationalism sells), I hear a lot of doomsday stories accompanied by catchy acronyms like SHTF and even TEOTWAWKI. What I don't see are well-reasoned analyses that lay out multiple scenarios and assign probabilities to those scenarios. Because most of history is a matter of muddling through (and reversion to the mean always tends to be the order of the day), I rather doubt that a new Dark Ages is right around the corner. Sure, it's possible, but what are the probabilities, based on current evidence, historical extrapolation, and scientific reasoning? Pointers are welcome. :)


Peter Saint-Andre > Journal